Open Thread, May 23, Braves vs. the Les Nessmans

There’s no such thing as a must-win in May, of course. But tonight qualifies as a sure-would-be-nice-to-win. Four-game sweeps are not fun.

I suspect Hanson will pitch well tonight. Chipper’s still out. McCann’s back in the lineup and Hinske’s playing right. Hinske has good numbers vs. Arroyo, and I guess Fredi decided J-Hey could use an off day. (Damn, McCann scratched again.) I have a feeling the Bravos are going to return to smacking the ball tonight. Playing sans Chipper hurts, but we knew he’d miss his share of time.

Fredi to Juan F.: We don’t play that shit

Good for Fredi:

David O’Brien ‏@ajcbravesManager Fredi Gonzalez spoke with JFrancisco about his bat flip and HR stroll, told him #Bravesdon’t abide by that kind of stuff.David O’Brien ‏@ajcbraves

Asked Fredi G. what part of Francisco’s HR trot/bat flip he didn’t like. #Braves manager said, “The whole act.”

 

Open Thread, May 22, Braves v Wayne Krenchickis

The way Beachy’s throwing, you have to feel good with him on the bump. That said, he’s bound to have an off night at some point. On the other side, Latos is a pretty good pitcher who has been spotty this year. He’s pitched at least 7 innings only once.

It’d be nice to grab an early lead, let BB coast, and even the series.

Speaking of Krenchicki, he was drafted 7th in the first round of the 1976 draft. What an underwhelming group of first rounders. The best big leaguer in the bunch, and the only one of any note whatsoever, was Hubie Brooks.

Open Thread, May 21, Bravos vs. Darrel Chaneys

The good news: tonight’s Reds starter, Mike Leake, is having a bad season. The bad news: Mike Minor is having a worse season, and Leake pitched well in his last start.

Maybe the worst player on one of the best (’75 Reds) and worst (’78 Braves) NL teams of the past 40 years.

Minor, uh, did not. In fact, the young Bravos lefty has been Kyle Daviesian in 2012. He’s made eight starts. Two were good. One was passable. Five have been repugnant. In his last four games, he’s been poleaxed for 27 earned runs in 20-2/3 innings, for an ERA of 11.75. The WHIP in that stretch is above 2. Yikes.

I didn’t see his most recent start against Miami, but in the game at St. Louis he started well. It looked to my untrained eye like he was so determined to get ahead that he left a few fastballs down the middle and up. Many of them were hit over the fence.

So maybe Minor’s due to iron things out starting tonight. He’s certainly capable, one has to think. His confidence is probably rattled. Cincy might not be the ideal place for a struggling young lefty to find himself, what with the Little League dimensions and a solid Reds team. The “Great American Ballpark,” whatever that means, is my least favorite of the new yards. It just looks like a carnival ride. And a fly ball to right center that wouldn’t reach the warning track at Turner Field is a home run at this riverside grotesquerie.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 10-8 game tonight. So watch both Mikes dominate.

Open thread, 5/19, Braves vs. Esteban Yans

After 40 games in 2011 the Braves were 21-19. Jay Hey and Freddie were each hitting .220. Uggla had dropped below the Mendoza line. Nate McLouth was the starting CF and only Chipper had an OPS over. 800.

After Friday’s win four Braves boast an OPS of .800 or better (Bourn, Prado, Freddie and Chipper) while Jay Hey, Uggla and McCann fall just short.

Chipper’s likely to miss the rest of the series with a nasty contusion over his ankle, but it’s nothing too serious, reports DOB. Francisco gets the start today, with Hinske at DH.

From the Dept. of Irrational Exuberance …

The Bravos are now 6-1 5-1 vs. first place opponents, with all seven games on the road — 2 out of 3 vs. the Dodgers, a sweep of the Cards and tonight’s win over the Rays.

CORRECTION: No disrespect, O’s fans. Baltimore, not Tampa, occupies first in the AL East.

Open thread, 5/18, Braves vs. Victor Zambranos

It seems I’m in the minority on this, but I like interleague play. I’d much rather see the Rays or Jays then another series against the Fish or Mets. That said, the Bravos face one of the tougher interleague slates, though they catch a break with Tampa, which is without Evan Longoria and Desmond Jennings this weekend. Despite their rash of injuries, the Rays have held first place for most of the season and have lost only four times at their godawful dome.

Meanwhile, it appears yesterday’s Oswalt post has got people talking. Expect that buzz to build if Tommy Hanson continues his poor man’s Millwood impression tonight.

Regarding all theRoy Oswalt #Braves questions — team has not ruled it out, from what I hear. I assume it would depend on price.

— David O’Brien (@ajcbraves) May 18, 2012

Open thread, 5/17, Braves vs. Nate Bumps

The Braves have the A-team on the field tonight, with Bourn and Chipper back in the line-up and Brandon Beachy on the hump. He’ll be opposed by Ricky Nolasco, who had one great game against the Bravos but has otherwise been mediocre against the local nine, allowing 135 hits in 110 career innings.

Should Braves give Roy Oswalt a call?

While Mike Minor was getting torched by the Fish last night, JJ was giving up 10 runs in Triple-A. You hope at least one of that pair rights himself, but other questions persist. Will Tommy Hanson remain healthy the whole season, and can Randall Delgado stay effective through September?

Yes, Julio Teheran has found his groove at Gwinnett, but he’s the only option down on the farm. You could move Medlen from the ‘pen but consider the impact he’s had in the late innings.

I’m sure the Braves won’t pay the price for a half-year of Roy Oswalt, but I’d feel a lot better about their chances if they did. Oswalt is on record as saying he’d like to pitch for the Braves. The 34-year-old righthander is only one year removed from pitching 211 innings, with 193 K’s and a 1.025 WHIP.

Open thread, 5/16, Braves vs. Charlie Houghs

Bourn and Chipper both have the night off, making for a patchwork line-up that features Pastornicky hitting first, Jay Hey in CF, Matty D. in right and Francisco at third.

Needless to say, Mike Minor really needs a strong outing. I suspect the Braves’ overall success buys him more time, but with JJ and Teheren returning to form, he might not hang onto his spot in the rotation much longer.

 

Open thread, 5/15, Braves vs. Dwayne Henrys

So should we be worried about JV? He says no, that his arm feels great and he’s just been inconsistent with his sinker. I think he’ll be fine.

Speaking of fine, the bullpen should be getting better soon as Petah tweets that he’s about ready for a rehab assignment, meaning Chad Durbin’s days are likely numbered.

Stay tuned for our list of the Braves’ five worst relievers ever, which will include at least one member of the 1990 Braves bullpen to which Dwayne Henry belonged.

 

Open Thread, 5.14, Braves vs. Ron Oesters

Delgado’s had back-to-back good starts. Former elite prospect Homer Bailey has been less than elite in his career and this season. The Brewers curb-stomped him in his last start.

Let’s hope the Bravos’ bats keep rolling and do the same. Votto hit three home runs yesterday, so look out for him.

Tommy Hanson proves the strikeout is overrated

Today was vintage Tommy Hanson, and that’s not altogether positive. He struck out 9, bringing his K/9 ratio to nearly a strikeout an inning, roughly equal to his career mark. Yet he only pitched 5 innings.

He’s reached the 7th inning only twice this year and last season, in 22 starts, he made it into the 7th 7 times. The last time he pitched into the 8th? Sept. 27, 2010. He has 1 CG for his career.

Contrast that to Brandon Beachy, whose K/9 ratio has dropped from 10.7 in 2011 to 6.6 this season. He completed 7 innings only once last year but has done it three times already this year.

I’ll take the innings.

Open thread, 5/13, Braves vs. Mike Tysons

If Tommy Hanson can find his groove and lead the Braves to a sweep I’ll be downright giddy about the local nine’s fortunes. Everything is going right. Meanwhile, the Nats suffered another major blow last night when Wilson Ramos tore an ACL, likely shelving him for the rest of the season. Not that I’m cheering an injury but, with their pitching, a heavily populated DL may be all that keeps the Nats from a division title.

B-Mac and Chipper are taking the day off today, as scheduled, with Francisco getting the start at third.

I don’t see Lance Lynn going 7-0. I do see him winning a Tommy Greene look-a-like contest: 

Re-signing Bourn should be a top priority

Greg Walker is getting a lot of credit for the Braves’ offensive turnaround, deservedly so. But Michael Bourn deserves more.

His .399 OBP is second among NL lead-off hitters, he’s tied for first in runs scored with Fukey and is on pace to steal more than 50 bases. Unfortunately, it looks as if this will be his last season as a Brave, though it doesn’t have to be.

The Braves have enough money coming off the books next year to keep Bourn. But what about B-Mac, a free agent after 2013?

McCann is due $12 mil next season, and while free agency will bring him more bucks I suspect  $15 mil will be enough to retain him. So the difference isn’t that great.

Of course, that would necessitate parting ways with Tommy Hanson and JJ, but neither is looking like a long-term keeper.

Bourn is only 29 and continues to show improvement. And top-notch lead-off hitters are harder to come by. Maybe Matt Lipka develops into that guy but he’s at least two years away.

I suspect it would five years and $60 million to keep Bourn, a steep price but, based on what he’s done for the Braves offense, one I think would be worth paying. That’s roughly the same contract given Dan Uggla and, to me, Bourn is a more valuable asset, this year and beyond.

Open Thread, May 12, Bravos vs. Ken Oberkfells

The original Capt. Mediocre, but I talked to him once and he’s a nice guy.

Damn if I’m not feeling good about the Braves taking this series, especially with Beachy on the hill tonight. I’ll probably eat those words, but last night’s win felt big to me.

If I’m Beachy, I don’t give Beltran anything to hit, unless we’re ahead 10-1 and the bases are empty.

Open thread, 5/11, Braves vs. Garry Templetons

If not for Templeton’s one-finger salute Ozzie Smith might have never been traded to St. Louis.

The Braves were 7-1/2 games  ahead of the Cards in the Wild Card race when the two teams met on Sept. 9, 2011. Craig Kimbrel was one out away from effectively ending St. Louis’ season. A walk to Rafael Furcal brought the go-ahead run to the plate, Ryan Theriot, with Albert Pujols looming on deck. You know the rest (but may have forgotten it was Linebrink, not Kimbrel, who lost the game). It was all donwhill from there.

Fortunately, Linebrink is gone and the Bravos, unlike the BoSox, appear to not be haunted by those September demons. They’ll face a Cards team that appears to be the class of the NL, and if Sunday’s starter, Tommy Greene look-a-like Lance Lynn, is legit (6–0, 1.42 ERA) you can remove the qualifier.

Mike Minor, meanwhile, could be in jeopardy of losing his spot in the rotation if he pitches like he did against Pittsburgh and Colorado, allowing 18 hits and 15 runs in 11-1/3 IP.

Open Thread, May 9, Bravos vs. Mike Vails

Chipper’s playing today. O’Brien tweets that the old third sacker says his knee is improving. This is good.

I eat little bears for breakfast

McCann and Rev rest this afternoon. Makes sense to keep Wilson sharp and obviously Mac needs his down time. Huddy, I suspect, will pitch well after his solid post-first-inning work in Colorado. Braves hitters will duel mediocre southpaw Paul Maholm. Mediocre though he is — losing career record with a 4.38 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .282 batting average allowed — he’s allowed a single earned run in each of his past three starts.

That needs to change today. Could be tricky. It’s cool and the wind is blowing in, according to Don. And Maholm, strangely, has owned the Braves in six starts.

Why isn’t Larry Himes universally recognized as the stupidest GM ever?

There’s a reason the Cubs are the Cubs. Failing to re-sign Greg Maddux, who took less money to play for the Bravos (one of the many, many cool things about Mad Dog), then-Cubs GM Larry Himes argued the Little Bears were better off without the 26-year-old reigning Cy Young Award winner.

And how lamentable is the departure of Maddux? One day you have a Cy Young winner, and the next you don’t.

“Let’s just examine how this worked out,” Himes says. Isn’t it always the way? I knew how many games Maddux had won and he doesn’t ask. 20.

Himes forms with his hands an imaginary pile of money. This was Maddux’s money. Maddux didn’t take it in time. Now this money belongs to Jose Guzman and Dan Plesac and Greg Hibbard and Randy Myers.

Maddux in ’93: 20-10-2.36 ERA, 267 IP, 1.049 WHIP

Guzman, Hibbard and Myers’ combined ERA was roughly two runs higher than Mad Dog’s that year. Randy Myers saved 53, which was impressive, but by ’94 he was struggling to keep his WHIP below 1.4. Meanwhile, Guzman spent more time on the DL than in the rotation, Hibbard won once for the Mariners and Plesac pulled off a nifty impression of Craig Skok.

Maddux in ’94: 16-6-1.56 ERA, 0.896 WHIP.

Open Thread, 5.8, Bravos vs. Larry Biittners

Time to remind Ryan Dempster that he’s …. Ryan Dempster, career

112-117 record, 4.37 ERA, and 1.44 WHIP. The erratic righty has been superb in four starts in ’12, which means he is due for a correction. Let’s hope it happens tonight.

Meanwhile, Delgado needs to continue the fine work he did in a losing cause last time out. It’s time for McCann to snap out of it.