Coppy’s analytics seem rather basic

Braves GM’s have never been very adept at spin, which I’d argue is a byproduct of arrogance. I’m John Schuerholz, and if I say Scott Thorman is a top prospect, he’s a top prospect. 

But listening to Coppy attempt to justify the Andrelton trade gives me a new appreciation for his predecessors.

DOB just published Coppy’s full explanation of the trade, which only makes me hate it more. I suspect you’ll feel the same.

A sampling:

Why make the trade now?

I mean, if you feel like you have a chance to get special talent, you can’t shy away from it. You’ve got to really jump at it and take that plunge.

 

Uh, doesn’t Andrelton qualify as a special talent? 

Why not trade for the team’s biggest need: young, controllable bats?

I think it’s hard when you have a big-upside bat; those guys don’t get traded.

No, there wasn’t any big young bat on the market. There wasn’t (Kyle) Schwarber, there wasn’t anybody like that out there.

DOB: Do you believe you can use young pitchers to acquire hitters eventually?

Absolutely. I think you can look at prospects as being a kind of currency, and we just got two really good ones. Look, I hope that they end up here with us. Maybe they help us trade for someone else, maybe they are the guys that go. But I think we’ve shown that we are open to anything, that we are not afraid.

So teams won’t deal a bat for Andrelton but will for Chris Ellis? 

It gets worse.

DOB: There’s a perception that all the Braves got back was prospects in this deal, so how do they get better in’16?

No. I would just say this: You can make an argument that we are actually a team that can win more games with Aybar. Aybar is a career .276 hitter; Simmons has never hit .276 in a full season. Aybar’s a switch-hitter, 18 months back an All-Star, he can hit 1 or 2 for you – I mean, Aybar’s a really good player. I think we traded defense for offense in this trade. The fact that we got two huge-upside arms is great, but as far as for 2016, I don’t think that’s a big step back for this Braves team. I think where it will hurt is more 2017, 2018, if Aybar ends up as a free-agent player.

So much for building for the future.

Moreover, Coppy sounds like Joe Simpson when he cites batting average to support his ridiculous claim that the Braves can win more games with Aybar. (Yes, Andrelton has never hit .276 in a full season, but Aybar has never hit 17 homers.)

And this is the Braves’ analytics guru?

According to the numbers, Andrelton was a better offensive player than Aybar  in 2015, with an OPS+ five points higher. Andrelton had a better OBP and identical slugging percentage.

Maybe Coppy and Fredi think a .315 OBP works atop the line-up, but that’s it. Aybar will be 32 on Opening Day, so his numbers only figure to trend downward.

Thanks for assuaging my concerns, Coppy.

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One comment

  1. According to Mark Bradley, Coppy is both offended and incredulous that people would question his brilliance. He’s going to make Frank Wren look like Branch Rickey.

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