Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs wrote this today:
After all, we keep getting data and still, as a group, players that have been caught using PEDs have not outperformed their projections as a group in any time frame before being caught nor underperformed as a group in any time frame after being caught.
That may be true, when you factor in all the middling players caught using PED’s. But who projected 38 HR for a 38-year-old Rafael Palmiero, or 65 for oft-injured Mark McGwire, then 35? Did anyone really expect 50 HR from 32-year-old Brady Anderson (previous high, 21) or 73 HR from 36-year-old Barry Bonds? Keep in mind that the PED defenders almost always pigeonhole players over 30 as past their prime.
Unless projected in the Steroid Era, these numbers are anything but “projectible.”