The Office’s Quarterly Report: Pitching and management

(CD will follow with evaluation of the Braves’ offense and defense)

On the surface, the Braves’ pitching has been solid. Their ERA, opponents’ BA and are below the league average, and the rotation has notched 23 quality starts.

It’s those other 17 starts that have sucked. And the bullpen hasn’t been the rock it was in 2012; now, with JV undergoing a second Tommy John surgery and EOF’s velocity declining, you can’t help but wonder if FW might be shopping for relievers come the trading deadline.

PITCHING

Huddy: C  Timmy’s striking out more hitters than ever before in his Braves career (6.9/9 IP), but he’s been anything but dominant. His numbers would be downright ugly if you took away his two starts against the Nats (14 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB). Timmy hasn’t pitched past the 5th inning in 4 of his 9 starts, which is very uncharacteristic. One bad inning has been his downfall, so you figure he’ll right the ship.

Maholm: B- No starter has been more erratic than Maholm, who, like Huddy, has pitched superbly against the Nats (15-2/3, 2 ER, 7 H). Otherwise, it’s a mixed bag. When he’s bad, he’s bad — 18 H, 14 ERA in 8 frames vs. the Tigers and Giants. Right now, his stats are Maholm-esque.

Medlen: C+ No one should’ve expected Med Dog to pitch like he did in the second half last year but I think we all thought he’d be better than this. Check out the disparity between his 2012 numbers and this year:

• ’12: 0.913 WHIP, 6.7 H/9 IP, 6 HR allowed, 1.5 BB/9, 7.8 K/9,
• ’13: 1.409 WHIP, 9.2 H/9 IP, 7 HR allowed, 3.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9

Minor: A- Meet your staff ace. He’s pitched at least six innings in all but one start (and in that one he completed 5-2/3) and has walked just 10 batters all year. Only three NL lefties (Kershaw, Bumgarner and ?Travis Wood?) have better WHIP’s.

Teheran: C Though he’s pitched of late Julio has given up a lot of hits while missing few bats (11.5 H/9 IP vs. 5.6 K/9 IP). I keep waiting for him to turn the corner and pitch up the hype but it doesn’t look like that’ll happen anytime soon. He’s been a serviceable fifth starter but should be so much better than that.

Kimbrel: B In September 2010 the great Mariano Rivera went through a two-week stretch in which he blew three saves, struck out only one and had a 9.53 ERA. Which is to say, it happens to the best of them. Kimbrel will probably never be as good as he was last year but he’s still the best closer in the NL.

EOF: B+ Same old same old from O’Flaherty, but can he hold up over the long haul without Venters to help carry the left-handed load? It won’t surprise me at all if we see lefty Alex Wood, who has a 0.82 ERA after 8 starts in Double-A, in Atlanta sometime after the All-Star Break.

Walden: C+ The stuff is there but the trust isn’t. That needs to change if the ‘pen is going to remain the force that it’s been over the last few years.

Avilan: B It’s not always pretty (8 BB, 6 K in 15 IP), but Luis has gotten some big outs while avoiding big innings.

Vavaro, Gearrin, Ayala, et al: B+ Solid all-around.

MANAGEMENT

FW: B- Pulled off the best trade of the offseason yet is also responsible for the worst free agent signing. Sound familiar?

Fredi: C- If anyone asks you, “what you got against Fredi,” remind them of his strategery in the May 3rd loss to the Mets.

Bottom of the 9th, tied at 5, no out, Ramiro Pena at second, Reed Johnson at the plate.

A single probably wins the game, but Fredi don’t play that. Good bunt by Reed, but to what end?

This, of course, is not an isolated example. Unless the pitcher is up, there’s no good reason to give away an out in the late innings of a close ballgame. But 9 times out of 10, Fredi does just that.

A new third base coach would be nice, too. Snitker’s judgment on sending runners has gotten progressively worse.

Open thread, 5/17, Braves vs. Jack Fimples

For the first time this year, the Braves are fully intact. All their regulars are healthy and in the line-up, though one wonders if that’s a good thing.

It is. Though Jordan Schafer and Evan Gattis have produced at the plate they aren’t in the same universe as B.J. and Jay Hey, talent-wise.

Slumps, though generally not so pronounced, happen to the best of them.

In 2004 Chipper entered the All-Star Break batting .214 with a .741 OPS. His second-half OPS was more than .200 points higher.

Not to compare B.J. and Jay Hey to Chipper, though it does illustrate that even the greats aren’t immune to prolonged funks.

Let’s hope theirs end tonight.

1. Simmons SS 2. Heyward RF 3. J. Upton RF 4. Freeman 1B 5. C. Johnson 3B 6. McCann C 7. Uggla 2B 8. B. Upton CF 9. Maholm P

Open thread, 5/15, Braves vs. Oscar Villarreals

Win today and the Braves can salvage a .500 road trip, which is all you can ask of a team returning from their second 10-day road trip in little over a month.

Regardless, my confidence is waning. The Braves have been shut out six times already — nearly half as many times as they were blanked in all of 2012. I’m having a hard time believing the Keith Laws of the world who insist strikeouts don’t matter.

Not that the stat geeks will concede a thing.

Check out this exchange between DOB and some stat geeks angered by his tweet that three Braves rank among

1. David O’Brien ‏@ajcbraves3h

   Amazing to see how some are compelled to tell others just how they should interpret certain stats. Like folks can’t process info themselves.
2. Larry ‏@BravesLarry1h

   @ajcbraves …you’re just editorializing. We look to you for news. There are already plenty of columnists out there to ignore.

David O’Brien ‏@ajcbraves1h

@BravesLarry By simply stating that 3 #Braves rank in the top 7 in the NL, I’m editorializing? That is … I don’t even know. Astounding.

1. Larry ‏@BravesLarry1h

   @ajcbraves You provide no context or reasons why it’s not that significant as a standalone fact. Trying to elicit a certain reaction.
2. Larry ‏@BravesLarry59m

   @ajcbraves The fans are screaming their head off about K totals, while the most read beat man is leaving out the fact that historically…

    
3. Larry ‏@BravesLarry59m

   @ajcbraves …team strike out totals have a very weak correlation to team runs scored. You could do a lot to prevent this false narrative.

Larry ‏@BravesLarry57m

@ajcbraves It’s lying by omission, and now the average fan (who cannot process info) thinks that K totals are the be all end all.

I wonder if these guys realize, or even care, how obnoxious and patronizing they sound? Might as well debate gun control with Wayne LaPierre.

No doubt Dan Uggla has their back. He has two strikeouts for every hit this year and at his current pace is more likely to top 200 K’s than 100 hits. Process that info, bitches!

Fortunately, K-Uggla is not in the line-up that’ll face Ian Kennedy, who has just one win and a 4.83 ERA.

Schafer lf, Simmons ss, JUpton rf, Freeman 1b, McCann c, BUpton cf, Francisco 3b, Pena 2b, Hudson p

Huddy’s ERA isn’t much better (4.70) but he’s dominated at Chase Field. If he can avoid that one bad inning the  Braves should return home still in first place.

What to make of these Braves?

Following Thursday’s win in San Fran, confidence was high. The Braves were 3-1 to start their second 10-game road trip of the year and should have been 4-0. B-Mac was back, Dan Uggla — yeah, that Dan Uggla — was hitting and the line-up appeared ready to produce as we expected.

Since then they’ve been outscored 23-4, and now you can’t help but worry a little about Kris Medlen, who’s yielded one less homer this year than in all of 2012.

Then there’s B.J. Upton. I’ve tried to remain optimistic, but hell, not even Corky Miller could be this bad: 124 AB’s, 47 K’s, 7 XBH.

Meanwhile, Uggla’s resurgence was predictably short-lived. He’s gone hitless and struck out six times since Thursday, returning to familiar sub-Mendoza environs.

And yet … with almost everyone in the line-up underperforming, a wildly inconsistent — Mike Minor excluded — rotation and their two most hellish road trips nearly behind them, the Braves sit in first place, thanks to their chief competitor’s inability to win a series at home vs. the Cubs.

So it could be worse.

Plus, we’re about to get Jay Hey back, Brandon Beachy is no more than six weeks away from rejoining the club and the remaining  schedule is much more forgiving. Especially in September, when the Braves will play six games against Philly, five vs. the Fish, and three each vs. the Mets, Brewers, Cubs and Friars.

So there’s as much room for optimism as there is concern. Three days ago, we thought this team was about to take off. Three days from now, we could be celebrating a .500 road trip, if not better. Or we could be fretting over a six-game losing streak.

Neither would surprise me.

Open thread, 5/12, Braves vs. Billie Jean King’s brother

The re-invention of Tim Lincecum continues, and he’s started 2013 much like he ended the 2012 regular season. Lincecum is yielding a hit per inning and a walk every other frame. But he’s also striking out a shade over a batter per inning, so the Braves may be just what he needs.

I thought Med Dog looked better in his last start than he has all season. Let’s hope he’s turned the corner.

Open thread, 5/11, Braves vs. Rick Reuschels

Nothing much to say, so enjoy this montage of Rick Reuschel pics:

Open thread, 5/10, Braves vs. Atlee Hammakers

Fredi is attending his daughter’s college graduation, so Carlos Tosca is in charge for the next two days. Curious line-up tonight:

Schafer rf, Simmons ss, JUpton lf, Francisco 3b, Freeman 1b, Uggla 2b, McCann c, BUpton cf, Hudson p

Francisco ahead of Freeman? I don’t get it.

 

 

Open thread, 5/9, Braves vs. Terry Whitfields

The offense appears to be clicking, finally, and tonight’s line-up features the newly dynamic duo — Schafer and Simmons — atop the order.

Schafer RF, Simmons SS, JUpton LF, Freeman 1B, Uggla 2B,McCann C, Upton CF, Francisco 3B

Toeing the slab for the Giants: Ryan Vogelsong, who has allowed 8 HR and 46 hits in 35 IP this  year.

His opposite number, Julio Teheran, better start making his case for remaining in the rotation. Brandon Beachy is scheduled to begin his rehab assignment and could be ready to return to the parent club in a month.

Will Reed Johnson be the odd man out?

Jay Hey could be back as early as the Arizona series next week, which leaves the Braves with a most unanticipated, yet welcome, problem.

The bench, which appeared to be a weakness, has been among the best in baseball. But someone’s got to go.

*It can’t be Ramiro Pena, who’s exceeded expectations and is the only middle infield reserve on the 25-man roster.

*It won’t be Evan Gattis. You don’t send down a player with a .524 slugging percentage, particularly one who’s been far better defensively than advertised (showing a mean throwing arm in LF).

*It shouldn’t be Jordan Schafer, who’s been everything we thought he’d be in 2009, providing the Braves with generally solid defense and base-running and, so far, unexpected pop. Plus, he’s out of options and would never clear waivers.

(Shows how much we know: from last December’s post including Schafer in our countdown of the 20 worst A-Braves)

When FW re-signed him earlier this winter, I couldn’t help but think of Craig Robinson, Larvell Blanks and Adrian Devine. Wasn’t once enough?

*It could be Gerald Laird, but he’s signed to a two-year deal and if you lose him you lose the option of using Gattis and McCann as pinch hitters.

*That leaves Reed Johnson, who has a team option for next year and an affordable contract this year. He should be easy enough to trade. It’s no reflection on Reed, but, considering the options, what would you do?

Open thread, 5/8, Braves vs. Ted Powers

Winning today won’t be easy with this line-up:

1. Schafer CF 2. Simmons SS 3. Freeman 1B 4. Gattis LF 5. Uggla 2B 6. Francisco 3B 7. R Johnson RF 8. Laird C 9. Minor P

And with Kimbrel and EOF probably unavailable, Mike Minor will have to do most of the heavy lifting.

Fredi Haas, with a vengeance

“For us to win this year, we had to have a three-or four-run lead in the eighth inning. A one- or two-run lead, and he was going to mess it up, I guarantee you that.’ Claudell, discussing Fredi, er, Eddie Haas

Bottom of the 9th, tied at 5, no out, Ramiro Pena at second, Reed Johnson at the plate.

A single probably wins the game, but Fredi don’t play that. Good bunt by Reed, but to what end?

I know, Simmons’ walk brought J-Up to the plate, but with two outs — the first of which was gift wrapped by our manager without a clue.

Open thread, 5/3, Braves vs. Bruce Boisclairs

Some consistency would be nice, and the Mets should provide a punching bag for the Bravos.

But Marcum has pitched well against the Braves, Niese is solid and God knows how many hitters Matt Harvey strikes out on Sunday. (Even money on Uggla recording a golden sombrero.)

 

 

B.J. Uggla

The Braves’ two highest-paid players have been their worst. By far.

DOB shares these distressing stats:

Apparently Uggla is contagious

B.J.‘s .485 OPS ranks 188th out of 192 MLB qualifiers.

(.138 BA, 13 H 94 AB, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 9 BB, 34 K, .219 OBP, .266 slugging)

Uggla, with a .601 OPS, ranks 165th.

(.163 BA, 14 H, 86 AB, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 15 BB, 37 K, .287 OBP, .314 slugging)

The good news? They can’t get much worse. Check that — Uggla has gotten worse each year in Atlanta, so it wouldn’t surprise me if his BA remains south of .200 for the duration of the season.

The bad — really bad — news? The Braves will be paying Uggla through 2015 and B.J. through 2017. Handsomely.

FW has done some great work as GM — the trade for Justin Upton was unquestionably the shrewdest move of the offseason — but his track record on contract extensions and free agent signings remains pitiable.

Open Thread, 5/1, Braves vs. the Woodie Frymans, or Frymen

Often mistaken for a corrupt Alabama sheriff

A win tonight would almost feel like a bonus.

Zimmerman has been the Nats’ best starter so far. Maholm struggled last time out, so that suggests he’ll rebound tonight. Or maybe he’s about to have a two- or three-game slump. After all, Maholm is a decent pitcher but his career ERA is 4.24.

Anyway, isn’t J-Up due to go deep? It’s been, what, three games since his last circuit clout? And maybe Schafer will wreak mayhem again. This team looks like it’s going to be streaky. The good vibe is back. So who knows how far they’ll take it?

The silver anniversary of rock bottom: Even the wins were ugly

Part of a recurring series “celebrating” the 25th anniversary of the worst season in Atlanta Braves history 

Through 25 games the Braves were 16-9 with a comfortable 3.5 game lead in the NL East. Through 25 games in 1988 the 6-19 Braves were already 10 games out of first.

Game 26 came at home vs. the woeful Phils, managed by Lee Elia and featuring past-their-prime stars like Mike Schmidt, Lance Parrish and Von Hayes. Kevin Gross, the Steve Trachsel of his day, faced off against Zane Smith, who would somehow win 15 games that year.

You can call me Al

Dion James, at .243, had the highest BA in the line-up for the Bravos. Murph stood at .234; Oberkfell, .219; Virgil, .197; Gant, .160. Against all odds, they jumped out to a 5-0 lead after 7.

And then blew it.

Smith loaded the bases with walks to Juan Samuel and Schmidt and a single by Parrish. He got Hayes to ground out to first, scoring one, then left the game after Mike Young hit an infield single.

Enter Bruce Sutter, with two on, one out and a 5-2 lead. After Milt Thompson walked, Chris James singled to close the lead to 5-3. Greg Gross popped to short, bringing (then-)light hitting catcher Darren Daulton to the plate with two outs and the tying runs aboard. Daulton, who would hit .208 that year with one homer, singled to left.

5-5, after 8.

Forty-one-year-old Kent Tekulve retired the Braves in order in the bottom of the 8th, and Paul Assenmacher did the same in the 9th, striking out Schmidt, Parrish and Hayes.

With two one and one out in the bottom half of the inning, Albert Hall stepped up to face Tekulve. Hall, who had entered the game as a pinch-runner for Ken Griffey Sr., singled to right, scoring Andres Thomas with the winning run.

Predictably, the Braves lost the following game. It would be two weeks before they’d put together consecutive wins, beating the Pirates and Cubs. Chuck Tanner would manage only one of those games. The local nine were 12-27 when they fired Tanner, who had a .424 winning percentage as Braves manager.

Good times.

Timmy!!!

Tim Hudson, by the numbers:

Wins as a Brave 108

Wins his first three seasons 49

Wins his last three seasons (pre-2013) 49

Winning percentage as a Brave .620

Wins by Juan Cruz and Dan Meyer, the pitchers traded for Huddy 27 

Hits by Charlie Thomas, the third player in the deal with Oakland 5

Hits by Huddy since the trade 86

Wins by Mark Mulder, traded from Oakland the same month 22

Wins by pitchers traded for Mulder 123

Congrats to the 5th best pitcher in Atlanta Braves history — not bad considering the other 4 are either in the HOF, or soon will be.

Open thread, 4/30, Braves vs. Fredi

When asked why he was starting Reed Johnson over Jordan Schafer, who reached base four times Tuesday night and stole two bases, Fredi replied, “It’s called playing the percentages, it’s what smart managers do to win ballgames.”

Open thread, 4/29, Braves vs. themselves

Jay Hey says he hopes to be back by the end of May. Yikes. Even though he was hovering near the 1/2 Mendoza-line the Braves RF was contributing in ways Uggla and B.J. have not.

Uggla is so bad even our friends at CAC are struggling to assert, as they did last December, that the highest-paid Brave is “outperforming his contact.” About the only thing he does with any proficiency now is walk — and bases on balls have become almost a defensive posture for Uggs, who seems to draw his free passes when making contact is what’s needed more. A strikeout is not the same as a ground ball to deep second or even a weak fly ball to CF when it’s the 8th inning and there’s 1 out.

Unfortunately, that’s probably asking too much, as Uggla is hitless on 16 plate appearances with RISP. Strasburg must be licking his chops: Capt. Bargain is hitting just .118 vs power pitchers and .127 vs. righties.

Fredi, who managed as woefully as the Braves played on the road trip, needs to stick with a top-of-the-order combination for at least a full series. Face it, nothing’s working so go with the pair most likely to rebound: Simmons and B.J. Andrelton has actually shown signs of life lately, batting .255 with a .333 OBP on the road trip. B.J., meanwhile, hit .262 with a .815 OPS in 81 games out of the 2-hole last year.

He’s hitting 7th tonight, behind Uggla, an indignity no player should have to suffer. Schafer leads off, followed by Simmons, J-Up, Freddie and Chris Johnson. Gerald Laird catches and bats 8th.

The Braves badly need a jolt, and a commanding effort by Julio T. would provide just that. Can he build off his last start, when he allowed one run in 7 IP against Colorado? There’s some added pressure tonight, with Strasburg pitching for the Nats and the Braves desperately needing a win. Time to step up, Juley.

The schedule from hell doesn’t get any easier — after the seven-game homestand vs. the Nats and Mets the Braves hit the road to play the Giants, Reds and D’backs.

The Braves are one game ahead of last year’s pace. Game 25 in 2012 was a four-hour slugfest at the Ted  that saw the local nine 6-0 and 12-8 deficits to win 15-13 on a two-run homer by Chipper in the bottom of the 11th.

Guess who’s at the game tonight?

Chipper is in the clubhouse talking to his former teammates. He jokingly said, “the 41-yr. guy had to come down here to kick some butts.”

— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) April 29, 2013

Finally, are you as surprised as I am that Jon Koncak came out of the closet?

Open thread, 4/28, Braves vs. Jerry Ujdurs

No matter how good the Braves are, there’s always concern that Fredi will muck it up. If not for the outfield fly rule call in last years Wild Card game we’d be bemoaning the 4th inning bunt by Andrelton with one out, runners at the corners (slow-footed Freddie at third), Meds on deck and the Braves trailing 4-2. Needless to say the safety squeeze didn’t work out.

Tonight, he starts Uggla and his .167  BA (.135 vs. northpaws) at DH over Juan Francisco, who’s batting .327 with a .921 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers this year. Uggla has responded by striking out and hitting into fielder’s choice that would’ve been a double play if not for a bad throw by Infante.

Speaking of shitty Braves, check out these numbers for Nate McLouth: .351 BA, .455 OBP, .486 slugging, 8 steals. Apparently his resurgence down the stretch last year was no fluke.

Open thread, 4/26, Braves vs. Mark Fidryches

Uggla sucks, but batting him second makes sense, considering the alternatives. The Tigers will present a big test for Maholm, who’s been to the 2013 Braves what Medlen was to last year’s squad.

(If Mark Fidrych came along today the stat geeks would be too busy denigrating his low K totals to appreciate the pure joy he brought to the game.)