Advanced metrics should sue for slander

Jerry Crasknick’s chat on ESPN.com today featured an increasingly common meme (sorry, I hate that word too) concerning Fan Uggla:

According to advanced metrics Dan Uggla has been an above average offensive 2B since he has been with the Braves. He is overpaid, but he still needs to start every day.

Crasnick responded appropriately:

CJ, Feel free to cite advanced metrics, but that doesn’t make it any easier to watch Dan Uggla bat .180 while trying to hit a home run in every plate appearance.

At least CJ conceded Fan was overpaid. Last December, the folks at Capitol Avenue Club wrote that “Uggla has indeed outperformed what he has been paid the first two seasons.”

And don’t give me this, “he draws a lot of walks” nonsense. Fan’s OBP since he joined the Braves is a below-average .324.

 

Spring stats not totally irrelevant

And irrelevant RT @jaysonst: Awesome spring RT@ajcbraves: #Braves pitcher Teheran continues torrid spring with 6 hitless IP (10 K’s) vs Hou

— Consigliari51 (@consigliari51) March 23, 2013

Would you rather him give up four homers in an outing, like Teheran did last spring against Detroit? Nothing wrong with a young pitcher gaining confidence, is there?

PED apologists violate their own liturgy

Familiar language from ESPN’s Christina Kahrl, who claims the HOF is already compromised by PEDs.

I mean, c’mon, no Mike Schmidt or Hank Aaron in the Hall of Fame? By their own admission they broke the same baseball rule on the books that Bonds did, and they did so for the same reason — to enhance their performance.

She’s talking about amphetamines, which were once doled out like Morrison’s peppermints in most, if not all, of baseball clubhouses. That doesn’t make it right, but they weren’t consumed in the shadows. Eddie Mathews wasn’t snorting lines with Hank in a toilet stall, for instance, a la Canseco injecting McGwire. Greenies didn’t give one player a significant advantage over another.

Besides, it’s ridiculous to compare the banned substances.  The proof is in the stats, yet the apologists ignore the evidence. Perhaps because it totally destroys their argument.

What else explains Bonds’ production in the twilight of his career? Bonds’ lowest OPS, in four seasons from ages 36-39, was 1.278. His highest OPS in the prime of his career, from ages 26-29: 1.136. He had 69 more homers from ages 36-39.

Fortunately, someone else crunched the numbers typically required by the statistically obsessed.

Below are the top 15 OWPs of all time, regardless of age. Before 2001, no player had reached .924, Bonds’ OWP for the whole period that covers ages 36-39. Notice how unusual it is for someone aged 36-39 to have such a great OWP. It appears that no one has aged as well as Bonds.

Rank	Player	YEAR	OWP	AGE
1	Barry Bonds	2002	0.942	37
2	Barry Bonds	2004	0.929	39
3	Barry Bonds	2001	0.922	36
4	Mickey Mantle	1957	0.915	25
5	Babe Ruth	1920	0.913	25
6	Fred Dunlap	1884	0.909	25
7	Ted Williams	1941	0.908	22
8	Barry Bonds	2003	0.897	38
9	Babe Ruth	1923	0.896	28
10	Babe Ruth	1921	0.891	26
11	Ted Williams	1957	0.891	38
12	Babe Ruth	1926	0.883	31
13	Ted Williams	1942	0.881	23
14	Pete Browning	1882	0.88	21
15	Babe Ruth	1924	0.879	29

Dare I mention the freakish guns and engorged head?

Apparently none of this is sufficient proof for the likes of Kahrl, who writes of “the purported performance-enhancing benefits of PEDs.”

This from the group that sneers at those who ignore the irrefutable evidence found in the numbers.

Tonight’s reading assignment

Terrific column by ESPN.com’s Howard Bryant — so good he almost makes up for Rick Reilly — on this year’s Hall of Fame balloting. Much to recommend here, particularly this excerpt:

[B]ecause of the steroid era, the baseball writers are going to guess who deserves enshrinement based on who had big muscles or who had a suspicious career year. Thus, goes the thinking, the system must change. It is a disdainful mindset that doesn’t just miss the bull’s-eye, but the entire target altogether. It is the great MacGuffin of the game, and reveals a complete lack of respect for voters who for years have done the work, covered the games, and taken the privilege seriously.

The truth is that the writers are reduced to being a mop, left with cleaning up a colossal mess created by Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association for enormous profit. The fans also must take their share of responsibility simply because professional sports franchises respond only to loss of revenue. To the people watching, steroids were always someone else’s problem, not an issue to get in the way of the fun and games — until their guy was accused or their team wronged. The journalists whose job it was to hold the institution accountable failed, too, for too little reporting allowed a corrupt culture to flourish. The emerging Generation M, influenced by its Godfather, Bill James, and his capo, Billy Beane, is also deeply culpable for allowing their calculations to blissfully ignore steroids and, through that omission, attempting to legitimize the whole dishonest era (and themselves) by attempting to make the game revolve around only numbers. It is no surprise, then, that two of the Gen M standard bearers, power and on-base percentage kings Manny Ramirez and Jason Giambi (directly linked to Beane and James) were both disgraced by steroids.

What galls me about the stat geeks, outside of the smug uniformity, is their willingness to rationalize away fraud. The game deserves better than that.

The insufferability of stat geeks

The condescension doesn’t help, nor does the fact many (not all) take themselves so very seriously. Witness this sampling of Keith Law tweets culled from the past 24 hours:

The Triple Crown doesn’t make a hitter the MVP any more than a perfect game makes a pitcher the Cy Young winner.

— keithlaw (@keithlaw) September 19, 2012

That must’ve been some game Ted Williams had back in 1947.

Wright’s had a fantastic year. RT @dknobler: For those who want to base MVP on WAR, David Wright ranks above Buster Posey

— keithlaw (@keithlaw) September 20, 2012

No, Wright had a fantastic first half. His OPS since is .735, .005 points higher than Dan Uggla.

But he’ll lecture us on sabermetrics “@fcancun: @keithlaw Leyland issued 3 IBB today, all three led to runs #smrtbaseball“

— keithlaw (@keithlaw) September 20, 2012

I think that’s what they call a small sample size.

Sure it can, since it’s irrelevant. “@tyler_cady: @keithlaw yeah, but how often is a triple crown accomplished. That can’t be ignored.”

— keithlaw (@keithlaw) September 20, 2012

Miguel Cabrera’s .333 BA, 41 HR, 130 RBI: Irrelevant. Just like …

Agreed. “@maccapee: @keithlaw This is an NFL-based study, but it’s always nice to see the momentum fallacy debunked. wired.com/playbook/2012/…“

— keithlaw (@keithlaw) September 20, 2012

Only people who played the game would believe in something so stupid. If it can’t be analyzed with stats, it can’t be.

Eagerly awaiting the clever ripostes …

Former Brave is ‘worst player in baseball,’ but not as bad as Jerry Royster in ’77

According to Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference’s WAR (Wins Above Replacement) calculation, Jeff Francoeur is the the worst player in the game, though he’s not the worst ever.

Jerry Royster‘s 1977 with Atlanta, a -3.7 FanGraphs and -4.1 B-R debacle. The utilityman hit .216/.278/.288 and, the metrics say, played brutal defense.

Baseball Reference ranks Frenchy’s WAR at -3.0 — the 11th worst season for an offensive player since 1901.

With a dreadful August and September, Francoeur could threaten the season both sites agree is the worst ever.

 

Bill James determined to become a pariah

The godfather of sabermetrics appears to be the last person not named Paterno defending the late Penn State coach (excerpted from an interview with ESPN Radio’s Doug Gottlieb):

James: [Paterno] knew less about [Sandusky] than everyone else there … [the thought that] everything revolves around [Paterno at Penn State] is total nonsense. He had very few allies. He was isolated. He was not nearly as powerful as people imagine him to have been. …

James: “they kept it quiet because they had no idea what was happening … they just thought they were dealing with a little misunderstanding …” …

James: “Paterno is one of the very few people who saw Sandusky and saw a coach who wasn’t doing a job anymore, rather than a hero … people who are responsible for it are the media. The media created this smokescreen behind which Sandusky operated, and then they’re trying to blame Paterno.”

Related articles

• HBT: Bill James’ defense of Paterno ludicrous (hardballtalk.nbcsports.com)
• Someone Actually Thinks The Freeh Report Exonerated Joe Paterno, And It’s Bill James [Penn State Scandal] (deadspin.com)
• Bill James doubles down on the Joe Paterno defense (hardballtalk.nbcsports.com)

Typical

From Keith Law’s weekly ESPN chat:

Cody (Atlanta, GA)

Do you still see Jason Heyward as a future All-Star? How impressed have you been with Simmons?

Klaw

(1:15 PM) Yes, I do. Not at all.

So much for being magnaminous

The most annoying thing about the stat geeks is their arrogance, their firm belief that they’re right and everyone else is a hapless Neanderthal.

Exhibit Infinity 

If you think Venters is pretty much the same pitcher he was last year, minus luck, then be my guest. If you want to postulate that Derek Lowe was every bit as good as Huddy in 2011, that’s your prerogative. And if you choose to believe that Warren Spahn was primarily a knuckleball pitcher, well, I guess you’re entitled to your fantasy.

But don’t suggest that you know more than everyone else just because you have an algorithm that proves what should be as opposed to what is.

The statistically inclined need to realize it’s not so much the message that’s rejected but the messenger. If you really want to convince doubters, cool it with the condescension.

Otherwise you’ll be stuck in an eternal circle jerk with the Keith Laws of the world, sneering at us unenlightened folk who actually believe what we see with our own two eyes.

Future sabermetrician

Tommy Hanson proves the strikeout is overrated

Today was vintage Tommy Hanson, and that’s not altogether positive. He struck out 9, bringing his K/9 ratio to nearly a strikeout an inning, roughly equal to his career mark. Yet he only pitched 5 innings.

He’s reached the 7th inning only twice this year and last season, in 22 starts, he made it into the 7th 7 times. The last time he pitched into the 8th? Sept. 27, 2010. He has 1 CG for his career.

Contrast that to Brandon Beachy, whose K/9 ratio has dropped from 10.7 in 2011 to 6.6 this season. He completed 7 innings only once last year but has done it three times already this year.

I’ll take the innings.

Baseball takes time, in more ways than one

This is in no way a slam against our sabermetric-inclined friends. I just had to chuckle after reading this paragraph recently on Capitol Avenue Club. The post is insightful, and I completely agree with it. But it just reminded me anew that it takes some work, work I have neither the time nor the inclination to do, to keep up with the latest in advanced baseball stats.

That is to those guys’ credit. We have traded barbs on this site more than once. But I’ve come to appreciate that most of the devotees of the newfangled numbers sincerely want to devise new and better ways to understand what’s happening on the field. It’s just that sometimes, in my opinion, they border on ripping the soul out of the game.

Anyway, here’s the paragraph. I of course get the innings pitched stats, but the rest is a complete mystery, and I’ve followed baseball closely for 40 years.

Last season, the Braves received 119.2 innings out of the combination of Scott Linebrink (54.1), George Sherrill (36.0), and Scott Proctor (29.1). While Sherrill was actually reasonably effective as a left-handed specialist, the other two provided very little value during their Braves’ tenures. Proctor recorded a 6.06 FIP while Linebrink sported a 4.30 mark. Combined, the three totaled -0.5 fWAR.

A question for stat enthusiasts

Was I just lucky for 21 years? (No)

And I mean this sincerely — why the reliance on BABIP? How is it so much better than ERA? Some pitchers, like Greg Maddux, pitched to contact with great effectiveness. All balls batted in play are not equal. BABIP assumes that everything is a line drive and it’s partly luck as to where they land.

How many dribblers were hit off Mad Dog and Glavine? Were they merely lucky for two decades or are there other ways to retire a batter than a strikeout?

There’s plenty of other examples. Hall of Famer Jim Palmer averaged just 5 strikeouts per 9 innings over his career — Warren Spahn, only 4.4 K/9. That’s a lot of BABIPs. Granted, Palmer had Belanger and Brooks Robinson behind him, but Maddux and Glavine had some of their best years backed by mediocre defenders like Jeff Blauser. I don’t have Johnny Logan’s UZR on me but one can assume that Spahn wasn’t backed by Gold Glovers for the duration of his 21-year career.

Perhaps I’m being too simplistic. If so, correct me, but please leave the Keith Law-esque snideness at the door.

Stop telling me Derek Lowe didn’t suck

It’s hard for me to take advanced statistical measurements seriously when sabermetricians keep insisting Derek Lowe wasn’t all that bad.

Obviously, Lowe didn’t pitch anywhere nearly well enough to earn his $15 million dollar salary. But….he wasn’t nearly as awful as you might think. Sure, his ERA was 5.05, but his FIP was 3.70, and his xFIP was 3.65. Those are damn good numbers, actually better than Jair Jurrjens‘ on the season.

I’ve had it with the persistent dismissals of JJ’s performance. When healthy he’s been a rock but the statistically obsessed continue to attribute his good work to luck. Apparently JJ’s one lucky dude.

Now know acknowledging measurements like ERA and innings pitched qualifies me as a dinosaur but these are not irrelevant numbers.

Despite making 11 more starts Lowe pitched just 35 more innings than JJ. The soon-to-be highest-paid middle reliever in baseball never saw the 8th inning this season and made it through 7 just three times. Jurrjens completed two games and pitched past the 7th on six occasions.

Altogether JJ has pitched 671 innings for the Braves — nearly 100 more than Lowe. But Lowe has allowed 12 more hits. Their BB/9 IP ratio is virtually identical. Lowe’s WHIP: 1.463. JJ’s: 1.291

Apparently I’m easily fooled.

Based on Lowe’s production as a Brave (7.8 fWAR in three seasons), he’s slightly overpaid, assuming that 1 fWAR = $4.5 million. So he’s been worth $35.1 million, and made $45 million.

So Lowe’s worth $12 million a year!?! If that’s how the numbers crunch it’s hard for me to take the number crunchers seriously.

Whitlock: Stat geeks ‘ruining sports’

Amen Brother Whitlock, one of the better sports columnists out there.

There’s a stat for nearly every action in baseball. Little is left to the imagination. Sports were never intended to be a computer program, stripped to cold, hard, indisputable, statistical facts. Sports — particularly for fans — are not science. Sports, like art, are supposed to be interpreted.

It’s difficult to interpret baseball these days. The stat geeks won’t let you argue. They quote sabermetrics and end all discussion. Is so-and-so a Hall of Famer? The sabermeticians will punch in the numbers and give you, in their mind, a definitive answer. …

The nerds are winning. They’re stealing the game from those of us who enjoy examining the gray areas of sports. We’re about 10 years away from a computer program that will write stats-based opinion pieces on sports.

How do the stat geeks respond? Typically.

If you want to read a dumb, reactionary column about how statistics have ruined sports and that people who use statistics should “STFU,” by all means, go read Jason Whitlock’s latest thing over at Fox.  Just know ahead of time that it  is aggressively stupid, profoundly lazy and provides no insight whatsoever.  Even if you hate stats and are looking for ammo in that argument, you’ll find nothing there. It says a lot about Jason Whitlock’s personal aversion to thinking hard about sports, but not much else.

But I mention it anyway because I really find myself wondering what should be done when such drivel is encountered.

(Thanks to Caz for the link)

Make love, not WAR

The most interesting (old) man in the world! Not sure my wife thinks so!

By Doyle Harcavey

Heh, heh. Of course, I hated hippies in the ’60s and still do, so I never had any real affection for that expression. But I thought it was right clever and appropriate for my return column here on what you young people call a – what is it? — site log? Internet article? Mlog?

Anyhoo, I hear tell there are folks think Derek Lowe is a pretty good pitcher for our hometown nine. Hmmm. Now, I imagine Derek’s a fine fellow. Never met him myself. But certainly got nothing against him personally. Heck, all these ballplayers nowadays make too much money, so that’s not his fault. And I’m certainly not one to start squabbles, tiffs, dust-ups, rhubarbs or any other sort of disagreement.

But I’m afraid I just can’t go along with this notion that Lowe hasn’t been such a bad moundsman this season. These computer fellas like to talk about lots of statistics and abbreviations I know nothing about. Don’t want to know. Do they think baseball’s space travel? The stock market?

Heaven knows, a fella’s got enough to worry about without having to learn VORP and OPS and PECOTA. It’d take something near a Philadelphia lawyer or a chap with no hobbies or job to decipher all that and still enjoy a ball game. And if it’s all gonna tell me Derek Lowe’s a pretty good pitcher, then well, sir, I’m going to have to call bull hockey on that.

By the way, I just busted out of a so-called assisted livinig center, where I had a hard time finding a dadgum computer I could use. Glad to be back amongst the living. Hah!

I’m tired. I’m going to rest for awhile.

OK. I’m back. Where am I? I mean, where were we? Mercy. Oh, yeah. We were talking about all these newfangled statistics. How the heck do you figure out the magic number? And what’s the consumer price index?

Wee doggie! I’m just now coming around on ERA. Still haven’t figured out slugging percentage. Called ole Skip one time to ask him about it. Didn’t turn out well. Heh, heh. But Lowe’s ERA stinks, folks. Anyhow, in my day, we looked at a man’s won-loss record. After all, what’s more important than winning in baseball? Ole Mr. Lowe ain’t won many. Even an old head like me knows that. And he doesn’t pitch a whole lot of innings, either. Now don’t even get me started on this pitch count business.

Lawdy, Miss Claudy. In my day, a man aimed to finish what he started. This business of set-up men and middle relievers and five-man rotations. Poppycock. Walter Johnson and Christy Mathewson or, hell, (sorry for the cussing, ladies) Bob Gibson to name one you young fellas know today — these fellas didn’t need any damn relief pitchers or four days of rest. They finished games. They won games.

It comes down to W’s, fellas. As Casey Stengel once said, “Winning isn’t everything, but it’s the only thing that beats the alternative.” Or some such thing. Neither he nor Yogi Berra nor Bobby Cox nor Billy Martin nor Vince Lombardi said anything about VAR or WAR, far as I know.

You all be good, now. See ya in Branson!

Rowland 1, stat geeks DUNN

I’ve been consistent in my loathing for Adam Dunn, who plays baseball as if it was a lunchroom and he was its janitor. But the stat geeks have always loved him because he walks a lot and has power. Never mind all the strikeouts (notice how K’s are so important for pitchers but irrelevant for hitters), shitty defense and general malaise.

The aptly named Big Donkey has THREE singles against southpaws this season. No homers. No doubles. No triples, natch. He’s hitting .037 vs. lefties, .207 vs. righties. His OPS: .595.

Dunn vows to be in better shape next season. Guess the four-year, $56 million contract given to him last winter wasn’t enough of an incentive.

Has there ever been a worse contract?

Fredi will split closer duties

Fredi will use Venters and Kimbrel, depending on the matchups. No shock, but this is the first I’ve seen it reported as a final decision.

Makes sense. Neither is, of course, a proven closer, though both showed huge promise last season. If Kimbrel keeps his walks to a manageable number, and Venters gets a little rest, this should work out.

On this and other topics, indulge me for a minute, please. I am not dismissive of the stat geeks. I think they probably have some legitimate points. But for guys who have never managed nor played nor coached a game in the big leagues, nor probably any league with players over four feet tall, they’re maddeningly self-assured. 

Take the Capitol Avenue Club as a handy example. Now, I enjoy reading that site. It’s thought-provoking and generally well written. Yet the writers and most commenters utterly disregard the human side of handling ball players. The idea of a designated closer is absurd, they say.  That’s an old sabermetrician’s argument, and I can’t flatly disprove it. But I have heard many, many managers, pitching coaches and pitchers say that relievers are most comfortable in a defined role. And it seems that a closer by committee approach has rarely if ever worked. Can anyone cite an example of an effective one in the past 30 years?

No matter. The sabermetricians dismiss out of hand the psychology of it all, the comfort level of pitchers, the nerves involved that are – again, according to most who have actually thrown baseballs in the majors —  different in the 9th inning than in the 6th or 7th inning.

Maybe the stat masters are right. Maybe the three outs in the second, or fifth, or 8th inning are as important as those in the 9th. From a purely logical standpoint, I suppose it’s true. But when you are dealing with humans, logic does not always reign. Look at economics. Classical theory holds that we are all rational decision makers. We act sensibly and seek optimum value in all situations.

That’s ridiculous. People without health insurance and living in rented trailers blow BP oil spill settlement money on flat-screen TVs and four-wheelers. People scraping to pay the mortgage buy bass boats and Hummers.

So, maybe the sabermetricians are right. Maybe the benighted codgers who manage ball clubs hopelessly cling to the old ways simply because they are, well, the old ways. There is probably some truth to that regarding certain strategies. However, the smug self assuredness from those who brandish spreadsheets is as grating as the sacrifice bunt is to the sabermetric fundamentalists. 

That is all.

Noted & Quoted, sabermetric edition

“The Simpsons,” which lost relevance sometime around the Millennium, actually got off some funny lines the other night in an episode dedicated to stat geeks:

• “Baseball is a game played by the dextrous but only understood by the POIN-dextrous” — Professor Frink
• “I’ve made baseball as much fun as doing your taxes!” — Bill James, on his contribution to the sport
• “It’s a triumph of number-crunching over the human spirit — and it’s about time” — the Vin Scully-like announcer’s heavy handed characterization of sabermetrics

Unsure about Fredi? Let geometry be your guide

I dislike math as much as I detest talent evaluations based solely/soullessly on statistics, particularly when they conclude that a manager as accomplished as Bobby sucks  (via a commenter at Capitol Avenue Club):

In 2008, Fredi Gonzalez led his team to an 84-77 record when statistics (Pythagorean W-L) indicated that they should have gone 81-80 (rain out was never made up).

In 2009, Fredi Gonzalez led his team to an 87-75 record when statistics indicate that they should have gone 82-80.

You can attribute that deviation partially to “luck” if you want, but I contribute it mostly to good on-field managing. Good on-field managing will win you more close games and lose you less close games.

Similarly, I attribute the Braves’ consistent negative deviation from what statistics indicate their record should have been to Cox’s poor on-field management:

2010 Braves: 91-71
Pythagorean: 93-69

2009 Braves: 86-76
Pythagorean: 91-71

2008 Braves: 72-90
Pythagorean: 79-83

(This trend continues all the way back to 2004…)

As I said, he’s not Bobby.

If only the computer wore baseball spikes.