Drug test PECOTA

Baseball Prospectus’ 2013 PECOTA projections are a joke, and not just because they view the Braves as a .500 team.

According to BP, the Yankees will win four more games than the Nats. Boston will win four more than the Braves, projects BP, and will finish ahead of the Jays and Rays.

The Braves, at 82-80, are just two games better than the Mets, Phils and Indians (and that was before the Michael Bourn signing). And only 88 wins for the Nats? Seriously?

That’s about as likely as the Yankees winning 92.

National League

East

  1. Washington Nationals – 88-74
  2. Atlanta Braves – 82-80
  3. New York Mets – 80-82
  4. Philadelphia Phillies – 80-82
  5. Miami Marlins – 66-96

Central

  1. Cincinnati Reds – 92-70
  2. St. Louis Cardinals – 84-78
  3. Milwaukee Brewers – 79-83
  4. Pittsburgh Pirates – 79-83
  5. Chicago Cubs – 77-85

West

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers – 93-69
  2. San Francisco Giants – 85-77
  3. Arizona Diamondbacks – 84-78
  4. San Diego Padres – 76-86
  5. Colorado Rockies – 72-90

American League

East

  1. New York Yankees – 92-70
  2. Boston Red Sox – 86-76
  3. Tampa Bay Rays – 86-76
  4. Toronto Blue Jays – 85-77
  5. Baltimore Orioles – 74-88

Central

  1. Detroit Tigers – 92-70
  2. Cleveland Indians – 80-82
  3. Chicago White Sox – 77-85
  4. Kansas City Royals – 76-86
  5. Minnesota Twins – 66-96

West

  1. Los Angeles Angels – 90-72
  2. Texas Rangers – 87-75
  3. Oakland Athletics – 83-79
  4. Seattle Mariners – 79-83
  5. Houston Astros – 63-99
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2 Comments on Drug test PECOTA

  1. This is ridiculous. The Astros will lose 105 games easily. All of these projections are low. If you want to call the Braves at 86-90 wins, okay. But they added offense, rid themselves of bad pitching, and strengthened tehir bullpen. 82 wins isn’t smart.

  2. This sort of thing reminds of when a friend of mine was in some sort of fantasy league associated with Bill James during the strike year. When the season ended prematurely, my friend was leading the league, but James, using career-based adjusted averages, gave the title to another guy. The stats are more important than the on-field performance to these guys.

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