The most annoying thing about the stat geeks is their arrogance, their firm belief that they’re right and everyone else is a hapless Neanderthal.
If you think Venters is pretty much the same pitcher he was last year, minus luck, then be my guest. If you want to postulate that Derek Lowe was every bit as good as Huddy in 2011, that’s your prerogative. And if you choose to believe that Warren Spahn was primarily a knuckleball pitcher, well, I guess you’re entitled to your fantasy.
But don’t suggest that you know more than everyone else just because you have an algorithm that proves what should be as opposed to what is.
The statistically inclined need to realize it’s not so much the message that’s rejected but the messenger. If you really want to convince doubters, cool it with the condescension.
Otherwise you’ll be stuck in an eternal circle jerk with the Keith Laws of the world, sneering at us unenlightened folk who actually believe what we see with our own two eyes.