Obviously, Lowe didn’t pitch anywhere nearly well enough to earn his $15 million dollar salary. But….he wasn’t nearly as awful as you might think. Sure, his ERA was 5.05, but his FIP was 3.70, and his xFIP was 3.65. Those are damn good numbers, actually better than Jair Jurrjens‘ on the season.
I’ve had it with the persistent dismissals of JJ’s performance. When healthy he’s been a rock but the statistically obsessed continue to attribute his good work to luck. Apparently JJ’s one lucky dude.
Now know acknowledging measurements like ERA and innings pitched qualifies me as a dinosaur but these are not irrelevant numbers.
Despite making 11 more starts Lowe pitched just 35 more innings than JJ. The soon-to-be highest-paid middle reliever in baseball never saw the 8th inning this season and made it through 7 just three times. Jurrjens completed two games and pitched past the 7th on six occasions.
Altogether JJ has pitched 671 innings for the Braves — nearly 100 more than Lowe. But Lowe has allowed 12 more hits. Their BB/9 IP ratio is virtually identical. Lowe’s WHIP: 1.463. JJ’s: 1.291
Apparently I’m easily fooled.
Based on Lowe’s production as a Brave (7.8 fWAR in three seasons), he’s slightly overpaid, assuming that 1 fWAR = $4.5 million. So he’s been worth $35.1 million, and made $45 million.
So Lowe’s worth $12 million a year!?! If that’s how the numbers crunch it’s hard for me to take the number crunchers seriously.